Production limits are coming. They'll support prices and transfer market share to the US.
Donald L. Luskin
On the November FOMC
Thursday, November 8, 2018
Noted: business fixed investment has slowed down. Perversely, this could mean tightening.
On the Mid-Term Elections
Wednesday, November 7, 2018
A major risk-event has passed. The animal spirits of growth live, in the Senate at least.
On the October Jobs Report
Friday, November 2, 2018
For the mid-terms, an October surprise in November. Yuge payroll beat, storms or no storms.
Chinese Tariff Torture
Monday, October 29, 2018
Great GDP, great earnings season, great valuations. All falls flat as Trump lets China suffer.
One Sell-Off, So Many Causes
Monday, October 15, 2018
From mid-terms to China, a quick tour of everything that is (and isn't) wrong in the world.
Our Knife at China's Throat
Monday, October 8, 2018
NAFTA 2.0 and a nascent EU deal leave China isolated. The bond market seems to agree.
On the September Jobs Report
Friday, October 5, 2018
Massive revisions make a beat out of what looks like a miss, while earnings revised lower.
On the September FOMC
Wednesday, September 26, 2018
Short-term the Fed is optimistic. Long-term, it fears secular stagnation lives on.
The Fault is in R-Star
Monday, September 17, 2018
The "lambda-g" parameter says three extra rate hikes. Powell is right to be very skeptical.