Even at 3.8% unemployment, the labor market is looking more "mid-cycle" than "end-of-life."
Donald L. Luskin
Saudi and Russia Change Their Tune
Tuesday, May 29, 2018
Bowing to Trump’s tweet, or stabbing Iran in the back? Little change for global oil markets.
USD, Euro and the Risk of Italeave
Friday, May 25, 2018
Brexit was easy, because the UK never used the euro. Now we face a systemic threat.
China Trade: A Deal Takes Shape
Monday, May 21, 2018
It's only a "framework." But historic tax reform started that way, too.
Iran Deal: More Fire, More Fury, Pure Trump
Wednesday, May 9, 2018
Don’t panic. Still 180 days till sanctions take 2 million barrels/day out of the oil market.
On the April Jobs Report
Friday, May 4, 2018
Payrolls weren’t really a miss. The unemployment rate didn’t really go down. Other than that...
On the May FOMC
Wednesday, May 2, 2018
Ignore those data anomalies! Inflation doesn’t even need to be closely monitored anymore!
The 10-year at 3% – Bring It On!
Wednesday, April 25, 2018
The risk isn’t that the 10-year yield moves above 3%. The risk is that it doesn’t last.
Oil’s Bullish Bottlenecks
Tuesday, April 24, 2018
The upside case for crude isn’t OPEC cuts, but America’s infrastructure capacity limits.
Risk-Back-On in a Week of Tape-Bombs
Monday, April 16, 2018
The February bottom has been tested, with valuations having fallen further than equities.