It’s probably a ploy, but if not, this is no Smoot-Hawley. The real risk is Chinese recession.
Donald L. Luskin
On Trump’s Tariff Tweets
Monday, May 6, 2019
This is how deals are done. Trump has to act crazy and scare markets, or he won’t scare Xi.
On the April Jobs Report
Friday, May 3, 2019
Today’s strong numbers are as full of contradictions as February’s weak ones.
On the May FOMC
Wednesday, May 1, 2019
Trump is right, and if inflation stays “wonderfully low,” even Powell will agree to cut rates.
The Perfect Moment to Take Out Iran
Tuesday, April 23, 2019
A "Saudi call" and a million more barrels/day from the Permian mean little upside risk for oil.
So About That Recession
Monday, April 15, 2019
Everything causing a recession has stopped causing it. 10-year yields finally realize that.
On the March Jobs Report
Friday, April 5, 2019
A relief from February’s recession warning. Then why aren’t bond yields backing up?
The Curve Inverts, and a “Growth Hawk” for the Fed
Monday, March 25, 2019
Maybe there’d be no inversion at all if Trump had picked Moore instead of Powell.
On the March FOMC
Wednesday, March 20, 2019
Powell brings the whole FOMC on his apology tour. Mystery remains for the balance sheet.
Inside Our 2020 Presidential Election Prediction Model
Monday, March 18, 2019
Trump’s huge predicted win is robust to a cooling economy, but not to even a mild recession.