Trump and Xi come in maximum threat postures, but hints of compromises and off-ramps.
Donald L. Luskin
On the June FOMC
Wednesday, June 19, 2019
No surprises, no gaffes. Powell is developing a “blame Trump” story that points to cuts.
On the May Jobs Report
Friday, June 7, 2019
After revisions, payroll growth was a big fat zero. But that doesn’t have to mean recession.
Trump Wants to Cut Interest Rates. Powell Should Do It Anyway.
Tuesday, June 4, 2019
The chairman made the case last year for easing if the yield curve inverts—as it did in March.
It’s So Time to Cut Rates
Monday, June 3, 2019
It would take two cuts to un-invert funds-10. Powell: “your policy’s tighter than you think.”
On China’s Trade War “White Paper”
Sunday, June 2, 2019
A tough statement about US/China negotiations means China is still in negotiations.
On the Mexico Tariffs
Friday, May 31, 2019
This one’s for the base. Trade war, meet immigration war.
Sympathy for the Tariff Devil
Friday, May 17, 2019
It’s probably a ploy, but if not, this is no Smoot-Hawley. The real risk is Chinese recession.
On Trump’s Tariff Tweets
Monday, May 6, 2019
This is how deals are done. Trump has to act crazy and scare markets, or he won’t scare Xi.
On the April Jobs Report
Friday, May 3, 2019
Today’s strong numbers are as full of contradictions as February’s weak ones.