If Biden wins, we might know it on election night. If Trump wins, it could be weeks.
Donald L. Luskin
The First Skirmish in the Chaos Election
Tuesday, October 20, 2020
A Supreme Court deadlock on Pennsylvania balloting, but stocks continue to vote Trump.
On Trump Tests Positive
Friday, October 2, 2020
From the bully of the debates to a vulnerable human being, in mere hours. A new wild card.
On Our 2020 Election Model and the September Jobs Report
Friday, October 2, 2020
Payrolls earn more electoral college votes for Trump. He’ll need them as the recovery matures.
On the First Trump-Biden Debate
Wednesday, September 30, 2020
Trump won on points, but no TKO. Mr. Market is going to have to live with more uncertainty.
If It’s a V-Shaped Recovery, What About Oil Prices?
Thursday, September 24, 2020
OPEC+ must optimize rebounding demand, huge inventories, and resilient US fracking.
RBG RIP, the Election, and the Markets
Monday, September 21, 2020
A high court of 8 brings risk of deadlock in a Constitutional crisis in a litigated election.
On the September FOMC
Wednesday, September 16, 2020
The recovery now V-shaped, yet “dot-plots” ease. But Powell carps about fiscal stimulus.
On the August Jobs Report, and Our 2020 Election Model
Friday, September 4, 2020
Everything looks just like 2012, but it only took three months of recovery, not three years.
The Failed Experiment of Covid Lockdowns
Tuesday, September 1, 2020
New data suggest that social distancing and reopening haven’t determined the spread.