The risk isn’t the tariffs – it’s that they could push RMB through 7, and collapse oil prices.
Donald L. Luskin
On the July FOMC
Wednesday, July 31, 2019
One small step for the Fed. It should have been a giant leap. Then there was that gaffe...
FOMC Preview: 25 or 50?
Friday, July 19, 2019
Increase accommodation (don’t decrease tightening). Save the expansion. Blame Trump.
On the June Jobs Report
Friday, July 5, 2019
Reassuring, but too good to be entirely true. Nothing in it will put the Fed off its dovish course.
On the Trump/Xi Osaka Meeting
Saturday, June 29, 2019
The two preconditions for a deal are now met: pressure is higher and the sides are talking.
Quick Thoughts on the Road to Osaka
Thursday, June 27, 2019
Trump and Xi come in maximum threat postures, but hints of compromises and off-ramps.
On the June FOMC
Wednesday, June 19, 2019
No surprises, no gaffes. Powell is developing a “blame Trump” story that points to cuts.
On the May Jobs Report
Friday, June 7, 2019
After revisions, payroll growth was a big fat zero. But that doesn’t have to mean recession.
Trump Wants to Cut Interest Rates. Powell Should Do It Anyway.
Tuesday, June 4, 2019
The chairman made the case last year for easing if the yield curve inverts—as it did in March.
It’s So Time to Cut Rates
Monday, June 3, 2019
It would take two cuts to un-invert funds-10. Powell: “your policy’s tighter than you think.”