Recession risk is back, but with some key differences versus the same threat in Q1.
Donald L. Luskin
Another "Reverse Oil Shock"?
Tuesday, July 28, 2015
On the Euro Summit "Agreekment"
Monday, July 13, 2015
Prisoners dilemma solved. Greece punished. Varoufakis humiliated. Message sent to Spain.
China: Toil and Trouble, but No Bubble
Friday, July 10, 2015
A blow to confidence, but Chinese stocks are now valued about the same as US stocks.
On the Greferendum "OXI" Surprise
Monday, July 6, 2015
Europe won't capitulate to this template for democratically justified default in Italy and Spain.
On the June Jobs Report
Thursday, July 2, 2015
Liftoff deferred again: a jobs miss, downward revisions, falling participation, no wage growth.
On the Greferendum Surprise
Monday, June 29, 2015
Unknown unknowns. But most likely outcome: pro-euro "Yes" vote and back to negotiations.
Greece at the Cliff: Thermopylae Edition
Friday, June 26, 2015
We still think Greece will fold, at the last moment or a little after. But what if it doesn't?
The Oil Crash: One Year from the Peak
Thursday, June 25, 2015
Falling crude prices almost caused a recession. Stabilizing prices are igniting expansion.
On the June FOMC
Wednesday, June 17, 2015
All the dot-plots move down one rate-hike, as the Fed becomes "an object at rest."
On the May Jobs Report
Friday, June 5, 2015
A big beat, but not far below the surface many reasons for the FOMC to do nothing in June.