A long-overdue correction, and probably a mild recession. But a crisis? We doubt that.
Donald L. Luskin
Is This the Oil Shock Tipping Point?
Thursday, August 20, 2015
Maybe, but stocks, the dollar, gold, TIPS, and Fed expectations don't seem to think so.
On the RMB Devaluation
Tuesday, August 11, 2015
It's not that China needs to weaken the RMB. It's that the dollar is just too strong.
On the July Jobs Report
Friday, August 7, 2015
Something for nobody. We don't see how this is the "further improvement" Yellen seeks.
On the July FOMC
Wednesday, July 29, 2015
Funny how Yellen keeps saying "sometime this year." But the FOMC statement never does.
Another "Reverse Oil Shock"?
Tuesday, July 28, 2015
Recession risk is back, but with some key differences versus the same threat in Q1.
On the Euro Summit "Agreekment"
Monday, July 13, 2015
Prisoners dilemma solved. Greece punished. Varoufakis humiliated. Message sent to Spain.
China: Toil and Trouble, but No Bubble
Friday, July 10, 2015
A blow to confidence, but Chinese stocks are now valued about the same as US stocks.
On the Greferendum "OXI" Surprise
Monday, July 6, 2015
Europe won't capitulate to this template for democratically justified default in Italy and Spain.
On the June Jobs Report
Thursday, July 2, 2015
Liftoff deferred again: a jobs miss, downward revisions, falling participation, no wage growth.