Markets aren’t buying the new higher dots. Despite appearances, the Fed got the memo.
Donald L. Luskin
On November CPI – Inflation Definitively Peaks
Tuesday, December 13, 2022
Will Powell accept the good news? It doesn’t matter. He’s already pledged to slow down.
On the November Jobs Report
Friday, December 2, 2022
No sign of recession here. With the Fed promising to slow down, good news is good news.
On Powell at Brookings
Wednesday, November 30, 2022
The chair made two small but important (and dovish) concessions to reality.
“Zero Covid” Protests? Zero Importance.
Tuesday, November 29, 2022
Mostly a media confection, the protests shouldn’t suppress stocks or oil prices.
How Trump’s Red Wave Got Aborted
Monday, November 14, 2022
The quantitative proof is in. Trump and the SCOTUS Roe decision decided the mid-terms.
Our Hot Take on the Mid-Terms
Wednesday, November 9, 2022
Assuming Laxalt wins Nevada, it’s a 50-50 Senate. Again it’s all down to Georgia and Trump.
On the November FOMC
Wednesday, November 2, 2022
Acknowledging lags is important, but it’s no pivot. It’s a gift of time for inflation to fall further.
Equity Risk Premium: Regime Change Accomplished
Tuesday, October 25, 2022
It doesn’t mean stocks are expensive: just that there was an historic bear market in bonds.
Or How I Learned To Love September CPI
Thursday, October 13, 2022
By most measures, the reality remains that inflation has peaked. The Fed likely doesn’t care.