US GDP - 2022-07-27

An upturn in exports narrows Q2 contraction to 0.9% SAAR, missing expectations but beating the Atlanta Fed estimate of 1.2%. The big determinant on the downside was the slowing of inventories (don't tell Walmart). Let's not talk about an "official recession" now. There is no such thing, and if there were, this alone wouldn't prove it. By the way, look at the chart on the top of page 3. Today's GDP is precisely what history would lead us to expect given the size and distance in the past of the prior recession.