When Is Mr. Market Going to Start Worrying About President Biden?

https://trendmacro.com/system/files/reports/20200727trendmacroluskin-y2.pdf
Donald L. Luskin
Monday, July 27, 2020
Bidenomics would knock 12% off S&P 500 earnings and give the Fed a new third mandate.
US Macro
US Election Model
US Stocks
US Bonds
Federal Reserve
Oil
Markets are not acting like the US presidential election is less than 100 days away, with a potential “Democratic tsunami” ushering in a period of anti-growth economic policy. Perhaps markets are ignoring the risk, perhaps they don’t think Bidenomics will be so bad, or perhaps they think Trump will be re-elected. We are braced for a new equilibrium if markets suddenly decide to be more worried. The most anti-growth element of Bidenomics is tax policy, under which after-tax earnings would fall for all Americans, and higher corporate taxes would cut S&P 500 income by about 12%. Biden now says he would not seek to ban fracking, and his trade and Covid-2019 policies are similar to Trump’s. But de-carbonizing power generation would decimate the coal and natural gas industries. Biden would increase banking regulation, including a “third mandate” for the Fed to pursue racial equity. Significant infrastructure spending is proposed, mostly in “clean energy.”