Venezuela: A Trump Oil Shock?

https://trendmacro.com/system/files/reports/20170808TrendMacroWarren-80.pdf
Donald L. Luskin
Michael Warren
Tuesday, August 8, 2017
Oil is priced for geopolitical perfection. Venezuela is far from perfect, and getting worse.
Oil
Emerging Markets Macro
US sanctions on crude oil and product imports or exports would push Venezuela into collapse, taking up to 2 million barrels a day off-line. Though strategic and LOOP reserves would buffer the impact in the US, Trump would not likely want to be responsible for a global oil shock. Venezuela is already in a deep inflationary depression and near civil war, so may collapse anyway. It’s an embedded call option in oil that is far underpriced.
Author Override: 
Michael Warren and Donald Luskin