Trumped!
https://trendmacro.com/system/files/reports/20151214TrendMacroLuskin-45.pdf
Monday, December 14, 2015
Long Treasuries aren't budging as "liftoff" nears: it's going to be "one-or-two and reversed."
US Macro
US Stocks
US Politics
As we’ve been telling clients for months, Trump is not going to just go away – he may be the GOP nominee. The establishment and the conventional wisdom are just beginning to see it, and last week’s market jitters may in part have been caused by it. If Trump is the GOP nominee, and loses by a landslide, the GOP could lose the Senate and the House – despite gerrymandering – which would usher in two years of anti - growth policy such as we had in 2009 - 2010. Our election model still forecasts a win for the GOP. If it is Trump, the risk is that he would impose protectionist measures against China and US multinationals