On Trump Tests Positive

We offer our hopes and prayers for President Trump and the First Lady, who have tested positive for Covid-19. The immediate negative market reaction reflects the sheer uncertainties involved: this is a potentially decisive event in an election already fraught with the risk of chaos and Constitutional crisis. Short-term, this will exert a chilling effect on economic activity because it shows that anyone is vulnerable, but it could also unlock stalled stimulus talks. It commands the news cycle and makes Trump even more the object of fascination and attention. It gives him an opportunity to rebrand himself as a sympathetic character. But if he weathers this, like Reagan survived his assassination attempt in 1980, he will emerge both sympathetic and still a tough guy. Biden and surrogates will probably not be able to resist nasty recriminations, having already made Trump’s alleged mishandling of the virus crisis, and his seeming carelessness about masks, a campaign issue. That won’t be a good look, just when swing voters are discovering some sympathy for Trump.