Tariffs: Supreme Court or Bust

We hear from sources that the Solicitor General has been instructed by Trump to petition the Supreme Court on the IEEPA tariffs, as soon as this coming week. Trump is not happy to have lost twice, wants a clean win, and believes he can win at SCOTUS where there is a Republican-appointed majority, including three justices he appointed himself. If the partisan distribution seen in the lower courts repeats at SCOTUS, Trump has only a 31% chance of winning. We think that is about what markets have expected all along, even before Friday's Court of Appeals ruling after markets closed. We expect little reaction when markets open again tonight. We think SCOTUS will overturn the tariffs, and the only question is refunds -- a decision that will probably be remanded to the lower court, which has already said it sees them as a likely remedy.