The Rally in the Recession

This earnings season is the worst since the Great Recession, and forward earnings continue to falter globally. It is becoming increasingly clear that the global economy is slowing -- we think it’s the first-ever recession caused by low oil prices. Two Fed Governors have mutinied against Yellen, calling for patience in "liftoff" -- one of them, Tarullo, has the power to squelch any lobbying from banks agitating for higher rates. With oil prices having bottomed in August, the engine of destruction responsible for this recession has shut down. Damage has been done, and will play out for months. But global stock markets can look beyond that, as they do in most recessions.