Powell or Brainard? Or...?

Biden has said the decision on renominating Powell will come within days. We expect he will be renominated, because it’s a way for an unpopular president to “do something” without “doing too much.” Powell has support in the administration and in the Senate on both sides of the aisle. His nomination could survive nay votes by Warren and other progressives, but maybe not her attempts to poison the well. Warren can be appeased by nominating a bank regulatory hawk to fill the open position of Vice Chair of Supervision. Brainard, as an alternative to Powell, would not make any difference to monetary policy, about which they agree. But she has consistently dissented on Fed actions to loosen bank regulations. If she is not bank-hawkish enough for Warren, she could be made Vice Chair of the Board to replace Clarida, and former CPFB Director Cordray could be nominated to Vice Chair of Supervision. There will be no change to monetary policy whoever is nominated; but bank regulation will get more hawkish.