The Peak Oil Myth is Back (But This Time It’s Demand)
Wednesday, July 12, 2017
With oil prices in mid double digits, electrics can’t compete where sales growth is biggest.
Emerging Markets Macro
“Peak demand” for oil driven by rapid wide-scale roll-out of electric vehicles is mostly hype, and it plays into the present narrative that is mistakenly keeping oil prices low. Yes, cost reductions in battery technology have lowered the price for electrics and will continue to do so, but increasing shale supplies have cut global oil prices in half, making conventional vehicles unbeatably cost-effective. The bulk of automotive sales growth will come from China and the rest of the developing economies where first-time buyers in an emerging middle class will prize low cost above all, where electrics have to compete against legacy Western conventional models that can use primitive local fuels. Based even on IEA forecas