Our Predictions in This Most Unpredictable Year

We were correct to continue stand, after more than two and a half years, against an overwhelming consensus calling for recession – it never happened, and it made possible a second year in a row of strong gains in stocks, and rising bond yields, both of which we correctly predicted. Our key election call all year was don’t worry about it – whatever else happened, Republicans would control the Senate and block anti-growth policy initiatives in 2025. We predicted Trump would win the popular vote, but the election was less close than we expected. We sponsored client conversations with thought-leaders who would later be appointed to key Trump administration roles. We perfectly called both the top and the bottom of the near-10% correction from June to August in the wake of Biden’s evident senility. Our call for outright deflation was wrong, which made us also wrong on the timing of Fed rate cuts. We are especially proud of our controversial analysis that illegal immigration, whatever its evils, is driving job creation and economic growth.