Our Hot Take on Biden’s Stephanopoulos Interview

Biden’s poor performance with Stephanopoulos confirmed the impression of infirmity evident at the debate, and the anchor’s frankness gives voters social permission to admit they see it. Biden’s explanations came off as confessions of inability, raising the new question that if he is too infirm to run for president, why is he not too infirm to continue to be president? Markets, facing valuation issues already, may be discomfited both by the prospect of Biden remaining in office and by chaotic processes to remove him. Biden would have to agree to leave the ticket, with his delegates pledged under the rules except for a narrow loophole. Such agreement is likely, but it will take time for Biden to work through the five stages of grief. The 25th Amendment could be invoked to threaten him with removal to obtain his withdrawal. This requires Harris’s participation, which puts her in a powerful position to gain the party’s and Biden’s endorsement as the replacement. Our quantitative model shows Biden’s once-commanding lead sharply reduced.