Oil's Hard Road Forward
https://trendmacro.com/system/files/reports/20151005TrendMacroWarren-BY.pdf
Monday, October 5, 2015
Prices have seen the lows, but CAPEX hasn't -- production will decline through mid-2016.
Oil
We are lowering our expected price-range for crude to $45 to $60. But we think we've seen the bottom already, and expect prices to move up through the range through mid-year 2016. But near-term prices will be held down by the US refinery maintenance season, and continued fears of a flood of new Iranian oil. Statistical revisions have distracted markets from the massive US supply destruction that has already occurred. More is coming as CAPEX continues to dry up. Iran won't live up to its extravagant production claims. At the same time, with Russia intervening in Syria, the chances of a regional geopolitical event become greater. Prices will rise as these realities emerge, and production will rebound in H2-2016.
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TrendMacro Energy