On the October Jobs Report

A big upside surprise, and just what Yellen was looking for to justify December "liftoff." Obviously, the probabilities have now shifted very strongly in that direction. This puts a lot of pressure on our call for a small recession. Perhaps with oil having bottomed, we've seen the worst. But many growth indicators still look recessionary to us, and there remains time for other data releases to keep the Fed on hold. With long - term i nflation expectations about as bleak as they were in the Great Recession, and with the labor force participation rate so low -- and with widening spreads and the resurgent dollar having tightened credit conditions considerably -- we can't see what the Fed' s hurry is. With stocks having rallied considerably from the August lows, we don't see how we can avoid some degree of retrenchment here.