Now That We Are In a Boom, Can We Please Declare the Recession Over?

Today’s PMI record on top of March’s payroll blowout makes us wonder when the NBER will get around to calling an official end to the pandemic recession. They didn’t announce the recession until June, but that was more prompt than any other call in their history. Based on econometric modeling, they could have called the trough as soon as last October, dating it to April. This could reflect lingering extreme caution from health officials. But typically calling the trough takes twice as long as calling the peak. When the call finally comes, it could be a key sign of capitulation.