On the November Jobs Report

A huge beat on top of large upward revisions. It is inconsistent with contemporaneous labor market indicators, and will probably be revised lower, but is nevertheless strong evidence against impending recession. Wage growth was tepid, giving the Fed no reason to be more hawkish, so bond yields rose on the back of widening inflation expectations. At the same time, OPEC has slightly deepened production cuts, heading off a deflationary drop in oil prices in the face of a wave of new US production. This takes a major risk off the table for the global economy.