On the November Jobs Report

A big payroll miss versus a very unrealistic consensus, all the more so considering downward revisions. Weather may have played a role, but this ties for the second-worst payroll month since the Great Recession ended, and it’s consistent with forward-looking indicators that point to slowing growth. Hourly earnings growth was tepid. Yet in remarks last night Powell characterized the labor market as “very strong.” The default is that there will be a hike at the December FOMC, but we give it just a 50-50 chance.