On the November Jobs Report

The "sell on the news" reaction yesterday to the ECB's easing package takes pressure off the dollar, and gives the Fed scope to use this morning's better than expected jobs number to justify "liftoff" in December. The jobs report wasn't really that strong. Short - term unemploymen t is rising while long - term unemployment is falling, because desperate unemployed are having to accept part - time work -- the number of part - time jobs has increased by more than 2 million over the last three months. "Liftoff" is a mistake, because as key Fe d officials themselves admit, policy isn't really all that accommodative anymore anyway. Markets believe that a coming hiking regime will be gentle, only six hikes over three years. But we think "liftoff" might not only be "one and done," but "one and reve rsed," once the economy and markets make it clear what a blunder it was.