On the November FOMC

Donald L. Luskin
Thursday, November 8, 2018
Noted: business fixed investment has slowed down. Perversely, this could mean tightening.
Strategic view: 

A brief statement in which the only major change was noting that "growth of business fixed investment...has moderated from its rapid pace earlier in the year." That troubles us to, because it throws the long-term effectiveness of corporate tax cuts into question -- though forward CAPEX per share for the S&P 500 continues to grow rapidly. For the Fed, a drop in productivity growth, driven by a drop in investment growth, could fuel Phillips Curve cost-pressure fears unless wage growth drops too. This could fool the Fed into tightening just when the slackening of investment flow might be indicating that the Fed is already too tight.