On the Mid-Term Elections
https://trendmacro.com/system/files/reports/20181107TrendMacroLuskin-7K.pdf
Wednesday, November 7, 2018
A major risk-event has passed. The animal spirits of growth live, in the Senate at least.
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The uncertainty is over, with no "blue wave" or "wipe-out," and no repudiation of Trump, his pro-growth agenda, or the animal spirits he represents. After intensive campaigning, Trump is taking the outcome as a success. This may lead to a more cooperative negotiating posture with China, but it remains to be seen how Xi will react. Pro-growth policy can move forward without the House, with the Senate's advice and consent power more secure, and without show-boating obstructionists in the GOP. Talk about “infrastructure spending” is pointless. Tax cuts are secure; none expire in 2019-20. House Democrats have no leverage to force repeal. Disruptive displays will likely backfire for 2020. If they realize that, there could be a constructive policy relationship as there was between Clinton and Gingrich.