On March Jobs, a Powell Put, and a Recession Call

No recession visible in 228,000 net payrolls, beating the consensus and confirmed by other surveys. Immigration and immigration employment was strong. And no recession in S&P 500 forward earnings, which are at all-time highs and showing a 16% CAGR out eight quarters. Even the swooning stock market has only, as of yesterday, experienced anything more than a speculative correction. Without the Mag7, the S&P 493 only went negative YTD yesterday. Yet Wednesday we got a horrible tariff shock, effectively a large tax increase, which could upend all that. The scope and seeming arbitrariness of the tariffs make them all the worse, and so far there are more signs of retaliation than bargaining. Powell warned of both inflation and growth risks from tariffs, emphasizing inflation. Yet markets now fully expect four rate cuts this year, starting with certainty at the June FOMC.