The "Mar-a-Lago Accord" has Already Happened

The coerced investment in a sovereign wealth fund controlled by Trump is the logical equivalent of the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" endorsed by Miran. Bessent calls it a return of trade surpluses. It is a default, in which nations such as Japan are forced, under threats of tariffs, to invest more in the US on top of their existing Treasury holdings. Markets don't seem to care, because counterparties in the trade deals are not literally exchanging their bonds. The deals enabling this will unravel when the courts overturn Trump's tariffs -- we think the appeals court will rule unanimously against the government as soon as today. Future cases will invalidate Trump's invention of an SWF without any statutory authority. Trump's trade deals, none of which have been officially consummated, are a race to the bottom, and the reshoring of manufacturing is uneconomic. Markets and the economy will respond well to courts thwarting Trump's over-reach. Meanwhile, we see more evidence the administration is grooming Miran for Fed chair.