A Layman’s Guide to the Rare Earths Crisis

https://trendmacro.com/system/files/reports/20250609trendmacromccarthy-3e.pdf
Brian McCarthy
Monday, June 9, 2025
It won’t take long to develop alternatives to China's exports – it’s already happening.
US Macro
Asia Macro
Dominated by Chinese exports, US importation of rare earth minerals is miniscule. The entire global market is quite small, but critical to certain industries. For all its faults, the Trump Administration would not likely undertake strategic decoupling from China without planning for the curtailment of Chinese rare earths exports.  US and global competition for rare earth magnets – essential for electric vehicles – is arising, as it already has for gallium – essential for chip production. China’s rare earths weapon, once unholstered, will begin to lose effectiveness at an accelerating pace as rising prices make global competition possible after years of Chinese price-suppression. With an Operation Warp Speed for rare earths processing, the process could be accelerated.