How Will Biden Govern?

Trump is running out of time to effectively contest the election. The GOP is likely to retain Senate control, coming into Georgia’s two run-offs with comfortable margins. Biden was both nominated and elected as a centrist, and especially with a GOP Senate, that’s how he will have to govern. The leaders of Biden’s coronavirus task force have renounced lockdowns. There may be a relief bill, not a stimulus bill. Biden is unlikely to get an infrastructure bill past the GOP Senate if Trump couldn’t. High-profile “progressives” like Warren or Sanders wouldn’t be confirmable as cabinet officers. Brainard, Ferguson or Yellen are credible Treasury picks. Harris will likely be sidelined to administrative and ceremonial roles. Biden is likely to reappoint Powell. He won’t ban fracking. The worst policy risk is re-entry into the Iran nuclear deal, which would flood an already glutted oil market.