A House Divided Takes on Infrastructure Alone

The Bipartisan Infrastructure Act will be voted in the House on Thursday. Progressive Dems say they are committed to vote against it, but it would still pass if as many as 7 did, given 4 committed GOP votes. Pelosi doesn’t bring losing votes, so she must be confident it will pass, though she was forced into this. Financed with debt, not taxes, it is moderately stimulative and may explain the present Treasury yield back-up. Passage dooms the $3.5T reconciliation budget bill because Dem moderates will have already been able to vote yea on the popular BIA, and would have no motive to vote for an unpopular bill. The tax hikes in reconciliation have already shrunken to $2T from Biden’s initial proposal for $4T. Dissident Dem Senate moderates want to shrink the $3.5T spending part to a maximum of $1.5T, so the tax hikes will likely shrink further. It will be a lengthy acrimonious process, leaving a shrunken remnant that nobody supports, while Biden’s approval is now the lowest of any modern president, including Trump.