Gold at $4,000-plus

Typical explanations for gold's run-up "round up the usual suspects" such as inflation, the dollar, currency debasement, debt and geopolitical instability. Other markets that reflect such factors offer no corroboration whatsoever. Gold declined after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Hamas attacks on Israel were something of an inflection point, with gold never lower since. If that is the trigger, then the Trump peace deal could be a reason to take some profits in gold. Gold's most recent 22%-plus run-up in less than two months corresponds perfectly to the nomination of Miran as a Fed governor. His policy prescriptions would be a perfect storm for gold. But again, other markets offer no corroboration. Gold may not be reflecting risk, but rather opportunity in the post-pandemic productivity-led boom. In that case, other markets such as stocks, are perfectly corroborating. Gold may be more than a put -- it may be a straddle.