Forget the Debates, Hack the Election

Debates have been a losing game for Trump, and now he’s “shaking the box” by saying he’ll skip the next one. Trump’s performance would likely improve in a second debate, and expectations would be lower. But he boycotted debates in 2016 and turned it into an opportunity. By saying he’ll participate if it’s delayed and in-person, he puts Biden in the position of seeming to be afraid to debate. The GOP is evolving a strategy to counter Democratic domination of voting-by-mail, involving strategic litigation designed to throw the election to the House under the 12th Amendment, where Trump would likely win. A 6-to-3 Supreme Court would be a friendly ref in the game. This strategy only works in a close election, and we expect by election day our model will be forecasting a tie. Are equities rallying because the clear Biden win implied by polls would avoid a Constitutional crisis, or because such a crisis would be a small price to pay for four more years of pro-growth Trumponomics?