On the February Jobs Report

A big beat, even on the back of upward revisions that make January’s weak payrolls look a lot better. There would have been more payroll gains if it hadn’t been for the weather, cited by more than twice the usual share of the unemployed. The recent strong improvement in relaxed social distancing was too late in the month to be captured by BLS surveys. We expect social distancing to continue to diminish. Combined with an improvement in weather, March payrolls should be a blowout.