Europe’s EV Miracle Doesn’t Live Up to the Hype

We reiterate that oil is not in a new “super-cycle” headed for $100 or beyond. We also reiterate that we are nowhere near “peak demand” because of the ascendancy of electric vehicles. Overheated stories about electric surpassing diesel in Europe don’t generalize to the world. Diesel enjoyed atypically large market-share in Europe and was toppled thanks to emissions scandals. Gasoline-powered vehicles, even excluding hybrids with internal combustion engines onboard, remain dominant. Europe’s EV sales-share is disproportionately concentrated in the richest countries. Subsidies help, but in the poorest countries they barely move the needle. Europe is obsessed with climate change to an extent other nations are not, including the US. Future vehicle sales globally will be dominated by emerging nations with no diesel to dethrone, little concern with climate, and little money to pay for any but the most cost-effective vehicles – which for now, means gasoline-powered ones.