On the Dems’ “Virtual Convention”

If Mr. Market expects Trump to win, and expects the continuation of Trumponomics, then there is downside risk if he loses. By the polls, approval ratings, and our quantitative election model, there’s reason to think Mr. Market may be right. The Dem’s “virtual convention” had a smaller-than-usual audience and failed to provide the “social proof” that validates nominees in a typical convention. Biden performed well in his acceptance speech, with no evidence of the cognitive impairment seen in recent appearances. But his Trump-bashing based unnecessarily on false statements will do little to excite his supporters, who have heard it all before, and much to anger Trump’s and drive them to the polls. Harris’s speech was poorly delivered and ended with cringeworthy glitches. She played the race card and the gender card nonstop, revealing that she will not position herself as an Obama-like post-racial figure, but rather as a social justice warrior. The Trump campaign will zero in on her weaknesses, and drive turnout by telling white voters, especially white male voters, that the Democratic Party is for everybody but them – the same message that won for Trump in 2016 when Clinton made the same errors.