CREEP, the Sequel – China to Re-Elect the President
https://trendmacro.com/system/files/reports/20191223TrendMacroMargin-QG.pdf
Monday, December 23, 2019
China tweets, too. It’s signaling a more comprehensive deal than expected.
US Macro
Asia Macro
State-sponsored tweets from China make it clear that a “phase 1” trade deal is going to be signed, that it could be more comprehensive than expected, and that China is doing it to support Trump in 2020. This is an upside surprise to the extent that it re-ignites global trade and capital investment by reducing and deferring the risk that China will be forced into a disorderly first-ever recession. A greater likelihood of Trump’s re-election reduces the risk that the 2018 reduction in the corporate income tax rate will be repealed, a goal of every Democratic candidate.