China’s EV Bridge Too Far

https://trendmacro.com/system/files/reports/20230731trendmacrowarren-m1.pdf
Michael Warren
Monday, July 31, 2023
China leads EV sales, but after billions in subsidies, they’re still only 4% of the fleet.
Oil
Asia Macro
China, the country that has done the most for the longest time to subsidize electric vehicles, leads the world in unit sales but has barely scratched the surface of converting its fleet. Indeed authorities have learned that pure EVs are a non-starter, and the future lies with hybrids where an internal combustion engine acts as a generator for the electric powertrain. New sport utility vehicles in China built on this paradigm are pointing the way. Pollution has been reduced in large cities, perhaps because of more EVs on the streets. But carbon emissions nationwide have grown sharply, highlighting the reality that electric vehicles still require energy to manufacture and to power. China’s strategic objective of energy independence remains elusive.