On the April Jobs Report, and Liberation from “Liberation Day”

No evidence of recession. 177,000 net payrolls beat the consensus and our estimate, and were more than confirmed by the “household survey.” Employment gains were more than entirely explained by the native-born, with immigrant employment (and population) shrinking. We could be seeing the first month of evidence of the effects of deportation, self-deportation and border discipline. Based on the last two years, average monthly employment growth from the native-born exclusively would be only 71,000. Despite the atmosphere of “chaos,” as of this writing stocks have recovered from “Liberation Day.” Trump has been bargaining against himself on tariffs – delaying them and reducing them – setting himself up poorly for negotiations with other nations. If something spooked him into doing this, he will have to accept weaker trade deals than he had hoped, but he can claim victory – and trade deals, even small ones, are helpful for global growth.