On the April FOMC

No rate hike, as expected. There were four dissents, the most in more than 20 years. Miran wanted a rate cut. Three regional presidents wanted no easing bias in the meeting statement. But there was no easing bias in the statement. When asked about it, Powell acted as though there were. We have an important tell here: the dissenters and Powell are both saying that there is more of an easing bias than there appears to be. Powell was gracious in welcoming Warsh, who was advanced by Senate Banking this morning. He said he will stay on as governor until further notice, in light of the reality that the investigation of the Fed’s building rehab cost overruns are not “well and truly over.” For now that denies Trump an open chair for Miran, who will leave the board when Warsh takes his governor’s seat.