We still think it's an open question, but either way stocks and inflation plays will do well.

Let us be the last to say so -- the Fed will cut rates on September 18. But that doesn't mean recession, or a prolonged easing cycle, is around the corner.

No, nobody did. Nobody but the Treasury curve, that is.

Bernanke will cave to market pressure and cut the funds rate once, but a neutral bias will disappoint the doves about future cuts.

The Fed caves in to panic, and inflation risk kicks into high gear.

For the Fed, it's "jobs, jobs, jobs" -- and inflation is a matter of deep denial.

The Fed has kicked inflation pressures into high gear, pretty much for no good reason.

The first rule of central banking is: never admit you made a mistake. That means another rate cut at the October FOMC meeting.

With stocks back to all-time highs, was the summer crisis really about nothing at all?

Credit markets have stabilized, which may be enough to give the Fed pause before cutting rates again.