Growth Returns in the Spring
After a dreary winter, the economic bears may have to stay in hibernation.
After a dreary winter, the economic bears may have to stay in hibernation.
The two forces most likely to derail the economy -- the Fed and the Democratic congress -- have both put themselves on the sidelines.
Bonds have realized that the Fed isn't watching retails sales -- it's watching jobs.
A Democratic congress finds a way to keep the globalization train on the track.
Bond bulls are pummeled by evidence of reaccelerating growth, and grasp at statistical straws of supposedly benign inflation.
It's not the economy, stupid. For now, Democrats have no reason to rock the growth boat.
For four years, this expansion got no respect. What happens to stocks when it finally does?
The worst case inflation risk is off the table, but risk remains as growth accelerates.
They admit it finally -- no rate cuts. But that won't hurt growth, so a stock market correction will be short-lived.