Saudi and UAE are the only OPEC winners. As shale rolls over, the cartel's share will grow.

All the dot-plots move down one rate-hike, as the Fed becomes "an object at rest."

Falling crude prices almost caused a recession. Stabilizing prices are igniting expansion.

We still think Greece will fold, at the last moment or a little after. But what if it doesn't?

Unknown unknowns. But most likely outcome: pro-euro "Yes" vote and back to negotiations.

Liftoff deferred again: a jobs miss, downward revisions, falling participation, no wage growth.

Politics and policy have paused Europe's rally -- but this is not a return to the bad old days.

Markets now see the ECB is still highly accommodative, and Ireland's ELA comes to an end.

Not so much. A "trillion in deficit reduction" is really only a $109 billion one-off spending cut.

Italy's byzantine election laws sow uncertainty. Berlusconi is a tail risk, but not a fat one.