We still think Greece will fold, at the last moment or a little after. But what if it doesn't?

Unknown unknowns. But most likely outcome: pro-euro "Yes" vote and back to negotiations.

Liftoff deferred again: a jobs miss, downward revisions, falling participation, no wage growth.

Politics and policy have paused Europe's rally -- but this is not a return to the bad old days.

Markets now see the ECB is still highly accommodative, and Ireland's ELA comes to an end.

Not so much. A "trillion in deficit reduction" is really only a $109 billion one-off spending cut.

Italy's byzantine election laws sow uncertainty. Berlusconi is a tail risk, but not a fat one.

Stocks are vulnerable to correction because they're neither a value nor a growth proposition.

Abe picks doves and interventionists -- despite G-20 pressure, he has followed through.

An uprising of populism is a blow to Italy's growth, but not an existential threat to the euro.