Don't trust the production picture. US will drop hard, and OPEC's gains are not repeatable.

Recession risk is back, but with some key differences versus the same threat in Q1.

Funny how Yellen keeps saying "sometime this year." But the FOMC statement never does.

Something for nobody. We don't see how this is the "further improvement" Yellen seeks.

It's not that China needs to weaken the RMB. It's that the dollar is just too strong.

Maybe, but stocks, the dollar, gold, TIPS, and Fed expectations don't seem to think so.

A long-overdue correction, and probably a mild recession. But a crisis? We doubt that.

Less than three weeks to go, saying nothing, Fischer ratifies the consensus for no "liftoff."

These numbers won't drive "liftoff." With no new ammo for hawks, the doves and chickens win.

Markets have already done the tightening -- and Yellen likes keeping us all guessing.