On the Margin: China Trade Talks at the Edge of Chaos

The March 1 deadline for the US/China trade talks, before increased US tariffs are imposed, is driving negotiations to their most productive and dangerous phase. Headlines within a single day are starkly contradictory, as are Trump's remarks within a single press conference. We doubt the negotiations are snagged on enforcement mechanisms, because the existing tariffs that drove China to the table in the first place are self-evidently effective enough. More likely, because China has shown weakness by rushing, and by offering many concessions in advance, Trump is pushing for new non-economic terms involving China's cooperation with North Korea, Iran and Venezuela.