On the Margin: Well, We Said “Brace Yourself”

The media is falsely characterizing the Trump/Xi trade negotiation breakthrough as a mere “truce” or “ceasefire,” indeed claiming that there isn’t even any actual agreement arising from the Buenos Aires summit. This is no “ceasefire,” as no existing US tariffs are being withdrawn. And there is an agreement – both sides officially say so. The differences between official statements reflect domestic political needs to save face. The appointment of “hard-liner” Lighthizer to negotiate for the US is not remarkable – he is US trade representative, and it is smart to have a tough negotiator at the table. Trump’s tweet about being “a Tariff Man” has been taken out of context. Market volatility will continue to be driven both by the theatrics of negotiation, and the media business model based on bad news about Trump. A deal will get done.