On the September FOMC
https://trendmacro.com/system/files/reports/20150917TrendMacroLuskin-JU.pdf
Thursday, September 17, 2015
Yellen "takes note" of falling inflation expectations, and one member calls for negative rates.
Federal Reserve
US Macro
No "liftoff," no new guidance. Yellen acknowledges China as a risk factor, but the real news is her acknowledgement that the FOMC "takes note" of falling inflation expectations. As they were for Draghi last year, falling inflation expectations are a failing grade on central bank credibility. With one FOMC member now calling in the "dot plots" for negative policy rates, we think the Fed remains an "object at rest." There will be no "liftoff" anytime soon.